Decision Trees With AI

When to use a decision tree

When a decision branches into clearly distinct futures, each with its own cost, probability, and payoff.

A practical method

1. 1

   State the decision and the time horizon

2. 2

   List the top three options

3. 3

   For each option, list two to four downstream outcomes

4. 4

   Assign rough probabilities and payoffs — AI can suggest ranges, you choose

5. 5

   Compute expected values and stress-test the inputs

Worked domains

• Hiring — internal promote vs external hire vs contractor
• Launching products — soft launch vs full launch vs paid pilot
• Buying businesses — full acquisition vs partnership vs build
• Domain investing — hold, develop, or flip
• Marketing campaigns — broad reach vs niche depth vs creator partnership