Scenario Planning With AI

The four scenarios

• Best case — what if your assumptions are right and trends help
• Expected case — the boring, most likely path
• Worst case — common shocks land at the same time
• Black swan case — a rare, severe event you would normally dismiss

How to build them

1. 1

   List the three external drivers that most affect you

2. 2

   For each driver, ask AI for plausible upside and downside ranges

3. 3

   Combine drivers into four coherent stories

4. 4

   Identify which decisions look right in three of four scenarios

5. 5

   Pre-commit triggers that move you between plans

Worked example: launching a new product

• Best — early adopters love it, press picks it up, you scale ads
• Expected — modest adoption, steady iteration over 12 months
• Worst — a competitor copies it cheaply within 60 days
• Black swan — a platform you depend on changes its terms